The graph below - courtesy of the International Herald Tribune - does not look like a dagger - but a dagger is what it is when pointed at a vast bubble of credit. Unfortunately there are central banks like the Bank of England and the Bank of Hungary that have not blunted their daggers, or indeed are still sharpening the dagger.
In my contribution to the Green New Deal in July, 2008 I warned that corporate debt defaults were the next “big shoe to fall”. We are all aware of the devastating consequences of defaults by sub-prime borrowers. However their debts are miniscule compared to outstanding corporate debts. Now, I firmly predict,corporate debt defaults are about to cascade down on the global economy, leading to devastating impacts, not the least of which will be widespread unemployment. How can I be so sure?
24th October, 2008
The NS has published a short piece this week: “Economists simply would not accept that their model could fail“. An introductory sentence is not mine: “Who would have predicted..that prudent Gordon Brown (would) breach the EU cap on government spending?” Am writing to the NS to ask for a correction to be published.
22nd October, 2008.
I am dictating this piece down the phone from Budapest in Hungary where I have just arrived to deliver a lecture to the Ybl Club. My hosts were in a state of shock on arrival because the central bank of Hungary has just raised interest rates from 8.5% to 11.5%…
9th October, 2008. Central banks’ obsession with inflation is stopping them from tackling a far more pressing threat.
Both the British Chancellor, Alastair Darling and the shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, have been on the radio this morning, resisting the idea that interest rates are political. Instead they have argued, vehemently, that the Bank of England is independent, and that the Bank must decide whether or not to lower interest rates.
The Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, speaking on Radio 4’s flagship current affairs programme this morning, repeated something he says regularly: that ‘interest rates are low’ and that his government, through the Bank of England, kept them low. The question the BBC should have asked is this: if interest rates are low, and have been so, why on earth are people/companies/banks having such a hard time paying debts? Surely the Credit Crunch crunched, because debts - of banks in particular - became both too large, too expensive, and unpayable? Do small businessmen/women pay low rates on investments? Mortgages? Credit Cards? Car loans? Does the PM live/work on another planet?
The US-centred financial crisis will damage the lives and futures of savers, employees, businesses and consumers across the world. All the more reason to address the systemic failures that led to it, is what I have argued in this piece published on Open Democracy today.In this big bad world of the Credit Crunch, powerful central bankers - civil servants all - have bent over backwards to help powerful and rich private bankers.
On one day, ‘debtonation day’, central bankers in Europe and the US pumped an eye-watering $150 billion into the financial system, to keep big banks afloat. According to Bloomberg, the US’s Federal reserve has ‘cycled $2.58 trillion through U.S. money markets since December’. (Bloomberg 8th August, 2008).
In Ten tactics to brighten the gloom, the Guardian invited ten experts to give advice to the Chancellor and Prime Minister on how to lift the economic gloom - and to do it in just 100 words. Other contributors included Howard Davies, Robert Peston, Irwin Stelzer and Bill Emmot. Here is Ann Pettifor’s contribution:
Don’t crucify the economy on the cross of inflation. In the 1920s, central bankers crucified debt-laden economies on the cross of gold. In the 90s Japan’s finance ministry crucified that economy on the perceived threat of inflation. Ending the creditor-driven policy of inflation targeting frees up the Bank of England to cut interest rates and immediately helps debt-laden banks, companies and consumers. Inflation is feared most by creditors, grown rich on financial deregulation policies. The greater threat to the poor is a debt-deflationary spiral leading to high unemployment - made more certain by high real rates of interest.
Joined-up policies to solve the triple crunch of the credit crisis, climate change and high oil prices.
Click here for the first report of the Green New Deal Group.
Ann Pettifor is a political economist and author of 'The Coming First World Debt Crisis' (Palgrave, 2006) and editor of 'The Real World Economic Outlook' (Palgrave, 2003). She is a fellow of the new economics foundation (nef) in London and director of Advocacy International.